Wool production forecasts
The AWI Wool Production Forecasting Committee aims to provide the best possible estimates of future sheep numbers for wool production.
The Committee produces consensus-based, authoritative forecasts of Australian wool production four times a year.
Key inputs into the forecasting process are twice yearly wool grower surveys and a computer based flock model. A simplified web version of this flock model is available on request.
Forecast Reports
The Committee releases its forecasts of production in the form of a press release and a report providing the detailed forecasts, historical data and commentary on the key drivers of the forecasts.
National Committee Members
The Committee is funded by Australian Wool Innovation Limited, which also provides a representative in the role of the Chairman of the National Committee.
The Committee has a two-level structure, with a National Committee considering information and advice from state sub-committees.
The National and state sub-committees comprise wool producers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants, AWEX, the Australian Wool Testing Authority, ABARE, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and The Woolmark Company.
Background
The Committee met in April 2002 for the first time operating under new arrangements. The Committee was previously conducted under the guidance and sponsorship of the Australian Wool Exchange Limited (AWEX).
Over a rigorous week-long round of meetings the Committee considers seasonal conditions, sheep slaughterings, live sheep exports, AWTA wool test results and wool producer surveys to forecast Australian wool production.
Wool grower surveys
In the latest national survey (PDF 147Kb) conducted in February 2007, over 1800 sheep producers from across Australia were interviewed. Although the main purpose of the survey was to collect information for forecasting wool production, these results are of more widespread interest and have been published as a Wool Desk report by the Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia.
The report includes sections on
- Current farm conditions;
- Intentions to change enterprise mix;
- Ram choice;
- Time of lambing;
- Marking percentage; and
- Flock composition.
Previous issues of the Wool Desk report can be downloaded from Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia site.
Read the media release about the latest national survey.
Improving the forecasting model
The Committee currently estimates state and national wool production using a consensus approach that draws upon a wide variety of data sources.
Development of a more sophisticated computer model of wool and sheep production has greatly assisted the Committee forecasting process.
An analysis of flock modelling options (PDF 888Kb) recommended a three stage model development. The first stage model has been completed and was successfully trialed for the December 2006 Committee forecast.
A simplified, web based version of this flock model is available on request from Kimbal Curtis, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia, Tel (08) 9368 3847 or (08) 9368 3333, Email kcurtis@agric.wa.gov.au
Contact
Russell Pattinson, National Committee Chairman
Tel: +61 03 5429 1868
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