Media Release
No change to September wool forecast for the 2007/08 season
7 December 2007
The AWI Wool Production Forecasting Committee has released an updated forecast of 395 million kg greasy for the 2007/08 season, unchanged from its September forecast.
The forecast is consistent with the season-to-date trend in available industry statistics, such as AWTA test volumes and AWEX’s brand analysis, and largely reflects the decline in sheep numbers leading into the 2007/08 season.
The Committee expects the number of sheep and lambs shorn in 2007/08 to be 92 million head, 9% lower year-on-year.
“In response to the 2006 drought, Australian farmers reduced sheep numbers, which was evident in the 12% increase in sheep slaughterings in the 2006/07 season and a record lamb turn-off” said Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson.
For fleece weights, some improvement in seasonal conditions in some parts of Australia has occurred, with the most notable improvement in fleece weights expected to come from Victoria.
“Historically, in the season following a drought, fleece weights rebound as seasonal conditions return to normal. However, except for Victoria, this has not happened in other states, which means the average national fleece weight in the 2007/08 season is only expected to increase by 2% compared with the 2006/07 season” said Mr Pattinson.
Looking beyond the current season, with recent rains helping to improve the seasonal outlook and higher wool prices, the wool production outlook for the 2008/09 season is more optimistic. The committee will release its first forecast for the 2008/09 season in March 2008.
The committee has received in-depth research and detailed commentary from the state forecasting committees as well as major industry organisations including the Australian Wool Testing Authority, the Australian Wool Exchange, Meat & Livestock Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm Wednesday, 12th December on the AWI website at www.wool.com.au/forecasts. The next meeting of the AWI Wool Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for 19th March 2008.
BACKGROUNDER
The fourth committee forecast for the 2007/08 season is based on 92 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average fleece weight of 4.29 kg/hd.
State by state, 2007/08 wool production in NSW is forecast at 127 mkg, down 9%. Queensland shorn wool production is expected to fall to 19 mkg greasy (-6% y-o-y), Victorian production is forecast to decline to 86 mkg greasy, down by just 2% in 2007/08 year-on-year, and Tasmania and Western Australia are forecast to be lower by 20% and 11% respectively. South Australia wool production is forecast at 60 mkg greasy, down by 3% in 2007/08.
The estimate for Australian wool production in the 2006/07 season remains unchanged from the September 2007 meeting at 426 mkg greasy. Production in 2006/07 is based on 101.4 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average of 4.21 kilograms per head (kg/hd). The latest ABS estimates of opening sheep and lamb numbers for the 2006/07 season is 93 million head.
In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX), the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) and the national AWI/Sheep CRC woolgrower August 2007 survey with responses from 1200 woolgrowers. The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The AWI Wool Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, DAWA and The Woolmark Company.
|
Season
|
Meeting
|
QLD
|
NSW
|
Vic.
|
Tas.
|
SA
|
WA
|
National
|
|
2004/05
|
Dec 05 (e)
|
23
|
165
|
98
|
15
|
63
|
112
|
475
|
|
2005/06
|
Dec 06 (e)
|
22
|
156
|
92
|
13
|
58
|
122
|
461
|
|
2006/07
|
Sep 07 (e)
|
21
|
140
|
87
|
12
|
61
|
105
|
426
|
|
2006/07
|
Dec 07 (e)
|
21
|
140
|
87
|
12
|
61
|
105
|
426
|
|
2007/08
|
Sept 07 (f)
|
20
|
126
|
80
|
10
|
62
|
97
|
395
|
|
2007/08
|
Dec 07 (f)
|
19
|
127
|
86
|
9
|
60
|
93
|
395
|
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures: mkg greasy (e) = estimate (f) = forecast
Released by:
Danny Pagoda – AWI Corporate Affairs - (02) 8295 3100 or 0417 971085