Media Release
Seasonal conditions hold back Australian wool production
25 September 2008
A patchy and dry winter and a dry start to spring in many parts of Australia is expected to pull Australian wool production back in 2008/09, according to the latest forecasts from the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee.
Australian shorn wool production is forecast to decline to 375 mkg greasy in the 2008/09 season, a 6% decrease from the 2007/08 level. This a modest change from the previous Committee forecast made in July. The Committee expects production to fall in all states except for Queensland. The main cause of the lower production is reducing sheep numbers from a continuing sell-off of sheep, encouraged by high prices for both lambs and sheep for slaughter and the live sheep trade.
Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson said, “The season has been patchy but, in many areas, conditions have been dry throughout winter and into the start of spring. However, the Committee acknowledged that the season is in balance. Growers are reported to be considering a further sell off of both lambs and adult sheep as they are becoming concerned about the availability of feed if seasonal conditions remain dry.”
“While production in 2008/09 is forecast to be lower than previously expected in most states, the most significant change is in NSW. Production in the largest wool producing state was expected to be up slightly in 2008/09, but the dry conditions, particularly in the south of the state, has resulted in a significant sell-off of sheep in recent months and expected lower fleece weights. This is now forecast to bring a 5% fall in wool production in that state.”
The Committee was aided in its forecast by a survey of over 1,000 woolgrowers taken across Australia in July and early August, supervised by the Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia (DAFWA) and funded by Australian Wool Innovation. The survey reported that over half the growers surveyed said that they were experiencing below average or drought conditions.
Seasonal conditions are worst in Tasmania, with three-quarters of those surveyed saying they were in drought. Wool production in Tasmania is expected to fall by 21%. In contrast, conditions were the best in Queensland, with over 60% reporting average or above average seasonal conditions. The Committee predicts that wool production in that state will lift by 6%.
Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson said “There are reports that some growers are interested in rebuilding their flocks, but this is unlikely to occur until we see a sustained improvement in seasonal conditions.”
The DAFWA Survey also included questions on the proportion of non-mulesed wool produced and lambs that would not be mulesed. Based on the Survey results it is expected that around 14.5% of Australian wool production in 2008/09 would be from non-mulesed sheep, an increase from the 11.5% reported in the February 2008 survey. The Survey also indicated that almost half of all lambs (46%) born in 2008 would not be mulesed. This compares with 32% reported in the February 2008 survey. In addition to these results, 21% of producers have a breeding strategy which involves sourcing bare-breeched rams, up from 14.8% recorded in February.
A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm Wednesday, 1st October on the AWI website at www.wool.com.au/forecasts.
Media contact: Russell Pattinson – (03) 5429 1868 or 0419 872 684
Ends
BACKGROUNDER
Total Australian shorn wool production for 2008/09 is forecast at 375 mkg greasy, compared with the Committee’s June forecast of 385 mkg greasy. State by state, production forecasts are:
• NSW – 132 mkg (down compared with 2007/08 by 5%)
• Western Australia – 84 mkg (down by 8%)
• Victoria – 75 mkg (lower by 8%)
• South Australia – 55 mkg (lower by 5%)
• Queensland – 20 mkg (higher by 6%)
• Tasmania – 8 mkg (down by 20%)
The latest estimate for Australian shorn wool production in 2007/08 is 400 mkg greasy, the same as the June estimate.
In developing the forecasts the Committee drew on a Survey of 1111 woolgrowers across Australia, conducted in July and early August. The Survey was supervised by the Department of Agriculture and Food WA (DAFWA) and funded by Australian Wool Innovation (AWI). The Survey included questions on prevailing seasonal conditions, expected wool production and sheep numbers. The Committee also reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). In addition, the Committee drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
State and National Shorn Wool Production
Season |
Meeting
|
QLD
|
NSW
|
Vic.
|
Tas.
|
SA
|
WA
|
National
|
|
2007/08
|
Sep 08 (e)
|
19
|
138
|
82
|
10
|
59
|
92
|
400
|
|
2008/09
|
Jun 08 (f)
|
21
|
139
|
78
|
8
|
56
|
83
|
385
|
|
2008/09
|
Sep 08 (f)
|
20
|
132
|
75
|
8
|
55
|
84
|
375
|
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures: mkg greasy (e) = estimate (f) = forecast
The Survey also included questions on the proportion of lambs in 2008 that would not be mulesed, the proportion of the clip that would be from non-mulesed sheep and whether growers had a ram breeding strategy that involved sourcing bare-breeched rams. The results from these questions were:
• 14.5% of Australian wool production in 2008/09 will be from non-mulesed sheep
• 46% of lambs born in 2008 will be non-mulesed
• 21% of producers have a breeding strategy which involves sourcing bare-breeched rams.
The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, DAFWA and AWI.
Released by:
Stephen Feighan, AWI Corporate Affairs. Email: stephen.feighan@wool.com Telephone: +61 2 8295 3107 Mobile: +61 418 218 913