Media Release
Wool production forecast revised lower for 2003/04 season
23 June 2003
Australian shorn wool production is forecast to decline to 470 mkg greasy during the upcoming 2003/04 season, according to the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Wool Production Forecasting Committee.
The Committee has also revised its forecast for the 2002/03 season downward to 490 mkg greasy from 500 mkg greasy. This forecast was based on opening sheep numbers of 107 million head.
Sheep shorn numbers are forecast to reach 110 million in 2003/04 a fall of 6% from the 2002/03 forecast. This is based on an estimated opening sheep number of 100 million head at the start of July 2003.
The Committee's initial forecast for the 2003/04 season in March 2003 indicated a slight increase in production to 505 mkg greasy. However, this forecast was based on a number of assumptions, including a return to normal seasonal conditions during 2003/04 following a break in the drought.
In the three months following this initial forecast there have been some patchy autumn rains, however they have not been sufficient to bring a widespread break in the drought. As a result wool production in many areas, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia continues to suffer from below normal seasonal conditions.
National average fleece weights are forecast to increase 2.1% to 4.27 kg/head in 2003/04 due to the improved seasonal conditions in Western Australia, South Australia and the southern regions of Victoria.
On a state-by-state basis the sharpest falls in shorn wool production in the 2003/04 season are again expected in New South Wales and Queensland. The extensive de-stocking in these states coupled with continuing poor seasonal conditions resulted in the committee forecasting a 10% and 15% drop in shorn wool production for these states respectively.
Improved seasonal conditions are expected to support production in a number of other states with production in Western Australia and Tasmania forecast to increase 2% and 3% respectively. Seasonal conditions in South Australia and Victoria remain very patchy and shorn wool production is forecast to be slightly below 2002/03 levels.
Some state-by-state adjustments were made to the 2002/03 forecast to bring these into line with the most recent industry data sets, including Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) test statistics.
The Committee revised downward its shorn wool production forecasts for Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, and South Australia, with a 35%, 9%, 10% and 15% decline in production forecast for each state respectively due to the continuing impacts of the drought. The forecast for New South Wales has been lifted slightly from -16.3% to -16% based on season-to-date AWTA test statistics.
As a result of these adjustments the Committee is expecting national sheep shorn numbers to be 117 million (in 2002-03), unchanged from the March forecast. Average cuts per head are forecast to be 4.2 kg, 2% lower than the 4.29 kg/head forecast in March 2003 and 4% lower than the 2001/02 estimate.
In developing these forecasts and production estimates the Committee reviewed the latest available statistical information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Wool Exchange and the Australian Wool Testing Authority. It also took into account the results of a survey of Australian woolgrower intentions conducted by ABARE and the latest rainfall information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. It also drew on the best understanding and knowledge of Committee members of current conditions and trends in the various regions of each State.
The national Wool Production Forecasting Committee comprises wool producers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants, and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA and The Woolmark Company.
A detailed report presenting the full results of the forecasts will be available on Wednesday, 25 June. A list of the National Committee Members is available on request.
A state round of wool production forecasting meetings will be held in the week beginning 15 September 2003, followed by a national meeting which is currently scheduled for 19 September 2003.
The Committee's next forecast will be released on 22 September 2003.
Ends
Media contact: Dr David James, National Committee Chairman - tel (02) 99745450, fax (02) 9974 1341, email ecoserve@ozemail.com.au
Released by:
AWI Program Manager Communications, Georgia McCafferty - tel (02) 9299 5155 or 0408 622 136