Media Release
Wool production forecast to recover in coming season
14 March 2003
Australian shorn wool production is forecast to recover slightly to 505mkg greasy during the 2003/04 season according to the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Wool Production Forecasting Committee.
This is the Committee's first forecast for the 2003/04 season and is based on a number of assumptions, including a return to normal seasonal conditions next season following an autumn break in the drought and anticipated higher lambing percentages given the current high proportion of ewes in the national sheep flock.
These factors are expected to result in a rise in sheep shorn numbers next season. However, it is anticipated that part of this rise will be offset by a fall in average fleece weights given the expected increase in lamb numbers.
Given the particularly high level of uncertainty over seasonal conditions, the Committee will review this forecast in June, when it is anticipated that seasonal conditions for the coming year will be more certain.
The Committee confirmed that shorn wool production in 2002/03 will be in line with its previous forecast of 500 mkg greasy, released in December 2002, although this forecast is also subject to uncertainty, with drought conditions likely to continue affecting wool production for the remainder of the season.
Some state-by-state adjustments were made to the 2002/03 forecast to bring these into line with the most recent industry data sets, including Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) test statistics.
The Committee revised downward its shorn wool production forecasts for Queensland, Tasmania and South Australia, with a 26%, 5.4% and 10.7% decline in production forecast for each state respectively due to the continuing impacts of the drought. Forecasts for Western Australia and Victoria remained unchanged, while production in New South Wales was revised upwards but is still forecast to decline 16.3% based on season-to-date AWTA test statistics.
As a result of these adjustments the Committee is expecting national sheep shorn numbers to be 116.8 million, 5% lower than indicated in December. Average cuts per head are forecast to be 4.3 kg, 5% higher than the 4.1 kg/head forecast in December 2002.
The Committee also finalised its 2001/02 production estimate at 555 mkg greasy, unchanged from the previous estimate despite some changes to fleece weights and sheep shorn numbers.
On a national level, sheep shorn numbers were reduced to 126.7 million head and average cuts per head were increased to 4.38 kg/head, in line with Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) estimates.
In developing these forecasts and production estimates the Committee reviewed the latest available statistical information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Wool Exchange and the Australian Wool Testing Authority. It also took into account the results of a survey of Australian woolgrower intentions conducted by ABARE and the latest industry projections released by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) in January. It also drew on the best understanding and knowledge of Committee members of current conditions and trends in the various regions of each State.
The national Wool Production Forecasting Committee comprises wool producers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants, and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA and The Woolmark Company.
A detailed report presenting the full results of the forecasts will be available on Monday 17th March. A list of the National Committee Members is available on request.
A state round of wool production forecasting meetings will be held in the week beginning the 16th June 2003, followed by a national meeting which is currently scheduled for the 20th of June 2003. The Committee's next forecast will be released on 23rd June 2003.
Ends
Media contact: Dr David James, National Committee Chairman - tel (02) 9974-5450, fax (02) 9974-1341, email ecoserve@ozemail.com.au
Released by:
AWI Program Manager Communications, Georgia Jacklyn - tel (02) 9299 5155 or 0408 622 136