Media Release
Wool production forecast for 2003/04 revised slightly lower
28 November 2003
Australian shorn wool production is forecast to decline by 14% to 430 mkg greasy during the 2003/04 season, according to the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee (AWIPFC). This forecast is based on 99.8 million sheep shorn and an average cut per head of 4.31 kg/head.
A strong decline in sheep numbers in most states and the on-going impact of the drought in New South Wales and Queensland have resulted in another downward revision of the Australian wool production forecast for 2003/04.
The Committee has also released its second production estimate for the 2002/03 season of 499 mkg greasy. This estimate has been revised 1.8% higher than the previous estimate in September 2003 of 490 mkg greasy and is based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) wool receivals, released on 26 November 2003 and final Australian Wool testing Authority (AWTA) test statistics for the 2002/03 season. The revised estimate reflects 117.5 million sheep shorn and an average cut per head of 4.25 kg/head.
The Committee's latest production forecast for the 2003/04 season is a further 10 mkg greasy lower than the September forecast of 440 mkg greasy. However, as noted in September, seasonal conditions were in the balance in New South Wales and the combination of hot weather and poor rains throughout September, October and the first half of November have led to further deterioration in seasonal conditions.
Sheep shorn numbers are forecast to be 99.8 million head in 2003/04, a fall of 15% from the revised 2002/03 estimate of 117.5 million head. This is based on the ABS opening sheep number of 98.3 million head at the start of July 2003. This opening sheep number is in line with the Committee's previous estimate of sheep numbers in September 2003 and represents an 8% decline on the 2002/03 season's opening sheep number of 106 million head. Significant destocking of sheep due to the drought and the strong meat-sheep prices throughout 2003 has caused this decline.
National average fleece weights are forecast to increase 1.4% to 4.31 kg/head in 2003/04 due to the improved seasonal conditions in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia and lower shorn lamb numbers in Queensland.
For state-by-state figures please see the information below. A detailed report presenting the full results of the forecasts will be available on Tuesday 2 December from the Production Forecasts page.
The national Committee's next meeting is currently scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2004 with the next forecast to be released on Friday 12 March 2004.
Media contact: National Committee Chairman, Dr David James - tel (02) 9974 -5450, fax (02) 9974 -1341, email ecoserve@ozemail.com.au
Media Backgrounder
On a state-by-state basis all states have pulled back their production forecasts, on a percentage change basis, compared with the previous September 2003 forecasts.
The sharpest falls in shorn wool production in the 2003/04 season are again expected in Queensland and New South Wales. The continuing effects of the drought resulted in the Committee forecasting a 33% and 23% drop in shorn wool production in these two states respectively, compared with the 30% and 19% fall forecast in September.
Production in Tasmania had previously been forecast to increase by 11% in the 2003/04 season, however poor seasonal conditions since September resulted in this forecast being dropped to an increase of just 1% to 14.6 mkg greasy.
Similarly, production in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia had been forecast to decline by 5%, 4% and 2% respectively in the 2003/04 season, however the Committee now expects production in these states to decline by 7%, 10% and 5% due mainly to lower than expected sheep shorn numbers.
In developing these forecasts and production estimates the Committee reviewed the latest available statistical information from the ABS, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the AWTA. It also took into account the results of a survey of Australian woolgrower intentions conducted by ABARE in October and November and the latest rainfall information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. It also drew on the best understanding and knowledge of Committee members (at both the national and state level) of current conditions and trends in the various regions of each State.
The national Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants, and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, Meat and Livestock Australia and The Woolmark Company. The national Committee meeting on 27th November was preceded by state meetings and the national Committee drew on input from these.
Ends
Released by:
General Manager Information and Education, Fiona Chisholm - tel (02) 9299 5155 or 0409 607 023