Media Release
Lower sheep numbers drive wool production down in 2003/04
12 September 2003
Australian shorn wool production is forecast to decline by 10% to 440 mkg greasy during the upcoming 2003/04 season, according to the Australian Wool Innovation Limited (AWI) Wool Production Forecasting Committee.
This decline is based on the Committee's production estimate for the 2002/03 season of 490 mkg greasy.
This 2002/03 production estimate, released for the first time today, is unchanged from the previous forecast in June 2003 and is based on the latest ABS opening sheep numbers at 1st July 2002 of 106 million head. This is 2.2% lower than the previous estimate on which the Committee based its June 2003 forecasts.
Lower than expected sheep numbers, the on-going impact of drought in New South Wales and Queensland and high sheep and lamb prices have resulted in a downward revision of the Australian wool production forecast for 2003/04.
Sheep shorn numbers are forecast to be 104 million in 2003/04 a fall of 11% from the 2002/03 forecast and 6 million lower than the previous forecast of 110 million in June. This is based on an estimated opening sheep number of 98 million head at the start of July 2003, down from the Committee's previous estimate of 100 million head.
This estimate has been lowered due to the new statistics from the ABS on opening sheep numbers for 2002/03, final statistics on sheep and lamb slaughterings in 2002/03 and revised estimates of lambs marked and sheep deaths in 2002/03.
The latest 2003/04 opening sheep number forecast is an 8% decline on the previous season and has been driven by the destocking of sheep due to the drought and the strong meat-sheep prices.
The Committee's previous forecast of shorn wool production for the 2003/04 season in June 2003 indicated a 4% decline in production to 490 mkg greasy. However, since this time there has only been a patchy break in the drought in New South Wales, Australia's largest wool producing state. 76% of New South Wales remains drought declared.
Whilst there have been some good rains in NSW since June they have been mainly restricted to the Southern and Western regions. Seasonal conditions in much of the state remains in the balance and wool production will depend on weather conditions over the next 4 to 6 weeks, with widespread rains needed.
National average fleece weights are forecast to increase 0.6% to 4.23 kg/head in 2003/04 due to the improved seasonal conditions in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania and lower shorn lamb numbers in Queensland and New South Wales.
On a state-by-state basis the sharpest falls in shorn wool production in the 2003/04 season are again expected in Queensland and New South Wales. The extensive de-stocking in these states in 2002/03 coupled with the continuing effects of the drought resulted in the Committee forecasting a 30% and 19% drop in shorn wool production for these states respectively. On the other hand improved seasonal conditions are forecast to result in an 11% increase in production Tasmania.
Production in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia is forecast to decline by 5%, 4% and 2% respectively in the 2003/04 season based on lower sheep shorn numbers but with better or unchanged seasonal conditions helping to support production compared with last season.
In developing these forecasts and production estimates the Committee reviewed the latest available statistical information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Wool Exchange and the Australian Wool Testing Authority. It also took into account the results of a survey of Australian woolgrower intentions conducted by ABARE in July and August and the latest rainfall information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. It also drew on the best understanding and knowledge of Committee members (at both the national and state level) of current conditions and trends in the various regions of each State.
The national AWI Wool Production Forecasting Committee comprises wool producers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants, and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA and The Woolmark Company. The national committee met on the 11th of September and used input from the State meetings which had been held prior to this.
A detailed report presenting the full results of the forecasts will be available on Wednesday 17 September.
A list of the National Committee Members is available on request.
The national committee's next meeting is scheduled for 27 November 2003 and their next forecast will be released on 28 November 2003.
Ends
Media contact: Dr David James, National Committee Chairman - tel (02) 9974 5450 or 02 6646 8085, email ecoserve@ozemail.com.au
Released by:
AWI Program Manager Communications, Georgia McCafferty - tel (02) 9299 5155 / 0408 622 136