Media Release
Wool production forecast revised slightly for 2004/05
6 December 2004
The forecast for Australian shorn wool production in the 2004/05 season has been revised marginally down to 487 million kilograms (mkg) in the latest figures released today by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee.
The revision - 13mkg down on the September forecast for 2004/05 - is a result of hot and dry seasonal conditions in some states during October.
In addition, the final estimates for 2003/04 production have been revised down by 5mkg to 475mkg as a result of revised flock data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Committee Chairman Dr David James said while 2004/05 national production was forecast to increase 2.5 per cent on 2003/04, this was lower than the 4.1 per cent increase forecast in September.
"The September estimate was based on a more optimistic seasonal outlook due to the good start to the 2004/05 season in most states," Dr James said.
"However, the better seasonal conditions did not persist in some wool producing regions, with a hot and dry spell in October that will affect wool cuts for the remainder of the season."
Production in 2004/05 is now expected to be lower than 2003/04 in South Australia and Western Australia. Production estimates in Queensland and Tasmania have been revised up, while production in the remaining states is still expected to increase, the size of the increases have been revised down slightly.
The 2004/05 production estimate is based on 108.6 million sheep and lambs shown at an average cut of 4.48kg per head. For 2003/04 the figures were 105.1 million shorn at an average cut of 4.51kg per head.
ABS opening flock numbers for 2004/05 are 102.6 million head, up more than three million head compared on 2003/04 numbers.
The micron profile of the national wool clip is also expected to change slightly, with the proportion of fine wool (19 micron and finer) expected to drop marginally to 28 per cent of the total clip.
A full report of the Committee's December forecasts will be available from Wednesday, 8 December on the AWI website at wool.com.au.
The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday 17 March.
Ends.
Media contact: National Committee Chairman, Dr David James - tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au.
Backgrounder
The revised 2003/04 production estimate resulted in a five per cent fall in national production compared with 2002/03 season. The drop is mostly due to a downward revision in numbers shown and cut per head in NSW, as a result of revised ABS data. A minor downward revision was also made for Tasmania. All other state estimates for 2003/04 remained unchanged.
All state estimates for the 2004/05 season were revised from September.
Queensland production estimates increased from an 8.5 per cent increase to a 10 per cent increase on 2003/04 production. Tasmanian production forecasts also improved from a 3.5 per cent increase to a 5.2 per cent increase on 2003/04. These increases are partially due to the changes in the 2003/04 estimates as well as better seasonal conditions.
Victoria's production increase of 4.3 per cent was revised back to 2.5 per cent.
In NSW the significant downward revision in the 2003/04 estimate has resulted in a forecast rise in 2004/05 of five per cent compared with a similar percentage increase forecast in September.
In contrast falls in production are now expected in both WA and SA, of two per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively. This compares with increases of 0.7 per cent and 4.8 per cent for these states in the September forecasts.
In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from ABS, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, and The Woolmark Company.
Download the December 2004 forecast report (PDF 186Kb)
Released by:
AWI Program Manager, Communications, Megan Ball - tel (02) 9299 5155 or 0409 403 827