Media Release
Wool production forecast revised up for 2004/05
25 June 2004
Forecast Australian shorn wool production for the 2004/05 season has been revised up to 500 million kilograms (mkg) greasy from the 470mkg predicted in March 2004.
Similarly current season 2003/04 estimates have been increased from 450mkg (March estimate) to 480mkg in forecasts released by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee which met yesterday.
Committee Chairman Dr David James said the break in drought conditions in many regions and data to May from the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) showing increased wool received for testing were the main reasons behind the upward revision of the 2003/04 production forecasts.
The 2003/04 revised forecast of 480mkg is now just 3.8 per cent below the 2002/03 season production of 499mkg.
Dr James said the increase in the 2004/05 wool production estimates was also due to the better growing conditions, as well as grower optimism about the better seasonal conditions.
"While some areas of NSW - particularly the Monaro and south-west - and pockets of Victoria are still in drought, we expect production to recover as a result of the general improvement in the season," he said.
Production in the three largest wool production states - NSW, Western Australian and Victoria - is expected to recover strongly from next season.
"The increase in wool production for 2004/05 will be influenced by growers' decisions to restock after the drought, higher lambing percentages and heavier fleeceweights as a result of the better season, and more sheep shorn than the previous season," Dr James said.
Destocking during the drought meant there was now a higher proportion of ewes in the flock and this would mean an increase in lamb numbers and an increase in the ratio of sheep in the national flock to be shorn, he said.
There is also expected to be a shift in the average micron of the clip in 2004/05, from fine and superfine microns to broader and mid-micron wool as the improved seasonal conditions lower the proportion of 'hunger fine' wool.
A full report from the Committee's June forecasts will be available next Tuesday 29 June from AWI's Wool Production Forecasts page.
The Committee's next meeting is scheduled for Thursday 9 September 2004.
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Media contact: National Committee Chairman, Dr David James - tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoserve@ozemail.com.au
Backgrounder
The Committee forecast either a rise in production in all wool producing states compared to the March 2004 forecasts or no change, for both the 2003/04 and 2004/05 seasons.
Forecasts for NSW production have been revised higher for both 2003/04 and 2004/05 seasons compared to the March 2004 forecasts. While significant areas of the state's south and west are yet to recover from drought, good rains in large areas of the state were behind the increase in production forecasts.
As the largest producing state, the NSW forecasts significantly influence the predicted production for the national clip.
Wool production forecasts were revised up for both the 2003/04 and 2004/05 in all states except Tasmania.
Production in Western Australia is now forecast to be 1 per cent higher in 2003/04 compared to 2002/03, with a further 3 per cent rise in production forecast for 2004/05.
Although pockets of Victoria, notably the north-west, are still suffering from drought, better seasonal conditions across most of the state are expected to see wool production lift 5.8 per cent in 2004/05 compared to 2003/04.
The revised forecasts and the March 2004 forecasts for each state for the 2003/04 and 2004/05 seasons are listed in the table below.
In developing the forecasts, the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from ABS and ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange and the AWTA. The Committee also drew on their understanding and knowledge of current conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The Australian Wool Innovation Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, Meat and Livestock Australia and The Woolmark Company. Yesterday's meeting of the national Committee was preceded by state meetings.
Read the June 2004 forecast report (PDF 183Kb)
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Released by:
AWI Program Manager Communications, Megan Ball - tel (02) 9299 5155 / 0409 403 827