Media Release
Wool production forecasts increase in 2003/04 and 2004/05
12 March 2004
The Australian shorn wool production forecast for 2003/04 has been revised up 4.7 per cent to 450 million kilograms (mkg) greasy and 2004/05 production is forecast to increase a further 4.3 per cent to 470mkg, according to the Australian Wool Innovation Production Forecasting Committee (AWIPFC).
The forecasts are based on the latest available industry information and were agreed at the AWIPFC meeting held on 11 March.
The revised 2003/04 season production estimate of 450mkg greasy is 4.7 per cent higher than the November 2003 estimate of 430mkg greasy and is based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) wool receivals for July to December 2003 and Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) test statistics to early March 2004.
The revised 2003/04 estimate is based on 102.3 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.4 kilograms per head (kg/head), both up on the November 2003 estimate.
Production forecasts increased from the November estimate in all states except Victoria, with New South Wales and Queensland forecasts recording the most significant increases, reflecting the receding impact of the drought during the first three months of 2004.
Despite this higher forecast it is still the lowest Australian national clip since the 1940s.
Queensland and New South Wales continue to be the most negatively affected states with production falls of 18% and 15% expected respectively. Tasmania remains the only state expecting an increase for the 2003/04 season.
The Committee also released its first production forecast for the 2004/05 season of 470mkg derived from 104.4 million animals being shorn at 4.5kg/head.
The opening Australian sheep flock numbers for 2004/05 are forecast to be 98.9 million head, a small increase from June 2003 but the first increase since the late 1990s. This reflects increased production estimates for all states, with the major percentage increases expected in Queensland and NSW.
The forecast assumes a normal autumn break and a return to normal seasonal conditions for 2004/05. It was noted that some parts of NSW were still drought affected but other states were starting this season in above average conditions.
The forecast increase in 2004/05 also takes into account the significant move into prime lamb production in many wool production zones. This is expected to alter both the numbers shorn and average cuts for the national flock over time as management practices change to reflect the shift away from wool towards lamb production. Wool production is also expected to continue to receive strong production competition from cropping and cattle production during this season.
In developing these forecasts and production estimates the Committee reviewed the latest available statistical information from the ABS, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the AWTA. It also took into account the results of a survey of Australian woolgrower intentions conducted by ABARE in January and February 2004 and the latest rainfall information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. It also drew on the best understanding and knowledge of Committee members (at both the national and state level) of conditions and trends in the various regions.
The national AWIFPC comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, Meat and Livestock Australia and The Woolmark Company. The national committee meeting on 11 March was preceded by state meetings and the national committee drew on input from these.
A detailed report presents the full results of the forecast. A list of the national committee members is available on request.
The national committee's next meeting is scheduled for 24 June 2004.
Ends
Media contact: Dr David James, National Committee Chairman - tel +61 2 9974 5450, fax +61 2 9974 1341, email ecoserve@ozemail.com.au
Released by:
AWI Program Manager Communications, Megan Ball - tel +61 2 9299 5155 / mobile +61 409 403 827