Media Release
Wool production forecast remains positive for 2004/05
10 September 2004
The forecast for Australian shorn wool production in the 2004/05 season remains at 500mkg, unchanged from the June forecast.
The September forecasts were released today by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee which met yesterday.
Committee Chairman Dr David James said the return to more typical seasonal conditions in many parts of Australia and an expected increase in opening numbers in June 2004 were the main driving factors in the rise in production for the current season.
"If achieved, this will be the first increase in wool production in eight years, reflecting the rebuilding of flock numbers," Dr James said.
The 500mkg forecast for 2004/05 is an increase of 4.1% on 2003/04 production of 480mkg.
Dr James said the forecast 2004/05 wool production was a welcome sign for the industry after enduring the extended drought conditions over the previous two seasons and reflected improved grower optimism in sheep production.
"Production is expected to increase in all states in 2004/05 with the largest increases expected from the eastern states - Victoria, Queensland and NSW - in response to the improved seasonal conditions," he said.
"Parts of NSW are still experiencing difficult conditions but generally the outlook for NSW has improved significantly with the recent widespread rains."
Dr James said the 2004/05 production forecast also reflected improved lambing percentages and pasture conditions that should lead to higher fleece weights for adult sheep.
The latest Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) lamb survey data also points to a flock rebuilding phase, with an 18 per cent increase in Merino lambs on hand at 30 June 2004 and a 16 per cent rise in joinings to Merino ewes expected.
The better seasonal conditions and outlook is also expected to be reflected in an increase in the average micron for the clip, with a reduction in "hunger fine" wool and a corresponding decrease in the quantity of fine and superfine wool, the first since 1998/99.
A full report from the Committee's September forecasts will be available by close of business on Tuesday, 14 September from the AWI website.
The Committee's next meeting is scheduled for early December.
Ends.
Media contact: National Committee Chairman, Dr David James - tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoserve@ozemail.com.au.
Backgrounder
The Committee has forecast increased production for 2004/2005 in all wool producing states compared with 2003/04.
Minor changes were made to the previous forecasts produced by the Committee in June, with upward adjustments for Queensland, NSW and Tasmania and downward adjustments to Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
The 2004/05 forecast was based on an estimated 101 million head opening flock at 30 June 2004. These figures were derived from the recent MLA Sheep Industry Projections Update and other supporting industry statistics. This is an increase of around 1.5 million head since 30 June 2003.
The revised 2004/05 forecasts and the 2003/04 estimates for each state are provided in the table below.
In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from ABS, MLA, ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The Australian Wool Innovation Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA and The Woolmark Company. Yesterday's meeting of the national Committee was preceded by state meetings.
Read the September 2004 forecast report (PDF 197Kb)
Released by:
AWI Program Manager, Communications, Megan Ball - tel (02) 9299 5155 or 0409 403 827.