Media Release

Clip forecast steady on improved seasonal conditions

9 December 2005

Improved seasonal conditions in south-eastern Australia are reflected in the latest national shorn wool production forecasts released today, with the 2005/06 clip expected to be 467 million kilograms (mkg), slightly lower than 2004/05.

Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee Chairman Dr David James said the 2005/06 forecast was just 1.7 per cent or 8mkg lower than the final 2004/05 production estimate of 475mkg.

“The combination of the decline in shorn wool production in the first half of the season is expected to modestly outweigh the improvement in fleece weights in the second half of the 2005/06 season, reducing total forecast shorn wool production 8mkg year-on-year,” he said.

Dr James said that available data showed the impact of the late start to the 2005 pasture growing season, with wool test volumes 5.5 per cent lower for July-November 2005 and sale data indicating a 3.6 per cent drop.

“However this is expected to be offset by the improved pasture growing season through spring in much of eastern Australia, resulting in higher fleece weights for sheep shorn in the upcoming autumn,” he said.

“We can expect a significantly higher contribution to shorn wool production from WA in the second half of the 2005/06 season relative to the same period the year before – considering the excellent pasture growing conditions throughout 2005 and the early finish to the WA season in 2004.”

To a lesser extent, a similar pattern is expected in NSW. At the beginning of the 2005/06 season, nearly 90 per cent of NSW was suffering from drought conditions, but after good spring rains this fell to less than 30 per cent by November. As the drought recedes, fleece weights for sheep shorn in NSW are expected to increase the further shearing moves into the 2006 calendar year.

The micron profile of the Australian clip continues to be forecast to be broader than in the 2004/05 season. It is expected that the proportion of 20 and 21 micron wool will increase, primarily at the expense of 19 micron production.

A full report of the Committee’s December forecasts will be available after 2.00pm next Wednesday, 14 December on the AWI website at http://www.wool.com.au/. The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday 9 March 2006.

Ends.

Released by: AWI Program Manager, Communications, Megan Ball - tel (02) 9299 5155

Media contact: Dr David James – tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au

Backgrounder

The 2005/06 shorn wool production forecast of 467mkg greasy is based on 107.2 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.36 kilograms per head (kg/head). Opening numbers for the 2005/06 season are 102.7 million head of sheep and lambs according to ABS preliminary estimates.

The final production estimate for the 2004/05 season remains unchanged on the September estimate of 475mkg greasy, the same as the 2003/04 season. The 2004/05 final estimate is based on 107.1 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.44 kilograms per head (kg/head).

State by state, NSW 2005/06 shorn wool production is forecast at 158.3mkg, down four per cent or 6.6mkg on the 2004/05 production estimate. Shorn wool production for Victoria and South Australia are forecast to decline by four and 4.8 per cent for the 2005/06 season compared with 2004/05, to 94mkg and 60mkg respectively.

Queensland production is forecast to decline by 2.6 per cent or 0.6mkg to 23mkg. Tasmanian shorn wool production is forecast to fall to 14mkg, a 7.8 per cent decline. WA shorn wool production is forecast to rise six per cent or 7mkg, to 119mkg, as sheep numbers shorn and fleece weights increase compared with the 2004/05 season.

In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.

The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, and The Woolmark Company.

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.   
Figures: mkg greasy       
(e) = estimate     
(f) = forecast

Released by:
AWI Program Manager, Communications, Megan Ball - tel (02) 9299 5155. Media contact: Dr David James – tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au

© Copyright 2008 Australian Wool Innovation (AWI)

• Legal terms
• Privacy policy
• Contact us
• Site map