Media Release

Drought puts Australian wool production forecast slightly lower

1 July 2005

Despite recent rains, Australian shorn wool production is forecast to be slightly lower in 2005/06 as a result of the drought in the eastern states and South Australia.

In the latest figures released today by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee, the forecast for Australian shorn wool production in the 2005/06 season is 470 million kilograms (mkg), one per cent down on the 2004/05 season.

Committee Chairman Dr David James said fleece weights for the upcoming spring shearings would be down as a result of the dry autumn in the eastern states and South Australia.

"In all states except Western Australia (WA), average fleece weights for the season are expected to be marginally lower than in the 2004/05 season," Dr James said.

"Lower fleece weights for sheep shorn in the first half of the 2005/06 season are forecast as a result of the lack of rainfall this autumn - particularly through April, May and into early June when there is normally significant pasture growth."

Dr James said that in contrast to the dry conditions in eastern Australia, the start to the WA season had been exceptional, with the early start to the autumn break in early April sustained by rain through autumn. This, combined with the relatively warm autumn temperatures until only a few weeks ago, brought ideal conditions for pasture growth, he said.

"The net result is that in WA, some woolgrowers in the Great Southern region have pastures a foot high moving into winter, with fleece weights expected to increase substantially for sheep shorn this spring," Dr James said.

"This large increase in feed available to sheep in WA will also have the effect of broadening the WA clip for the 2005/06 season. This is in contrast to the previous season, where the amount of fine wool - 19.5 micron and finer - from WA increased around 35 per cent."

A combination of improved seasonal conditions in WA and a subtle change in Merino breeding strategies to traits other than primarily micron, is forecast to reduce the volume of fine wool produced in 2005/06 to 144mkg greasy, a 13mkg greasy or eight per cent decline on the 2004/05 season.

The Committee also revised 2004/05 season figures slightly lower to 475mkg, down 2mkg on the forecast made in March 2005, as a result of the latest test data from the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). This now sets 2004/05 production the same as in the 2003/04 season.

The revised 2004/05 forecast is based on 106.4 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.47 kilograms per head (kg/head). The new 2005/06 forecast assumes 105.9 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.44kg per head.

A full report of the Committee's June forecasts will be available after 2.00pm on Wednesday 6 July on the AWI website at http://www.wool.com.au/. The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday 8 September 2005.

Ends

Background

State by state, NSW 2005/06 shorn wool production is forecast at 156.3mkg, down four per cent or 6mkg on the latest 2004/05 production forecast.

In contrast, WA shorn wool production is forecast to rise seven per cent or 8mkg, to 120mkg, as sheep numbers shorn and fleece weights increase compared with the 2004/05 season.

In Queensland, Victoria and South Australia, shorn wool production is forecast to decline by around three per cent in each state for the 2005/06 season compared with 2004/05, to 23mkg, 93mkg and 63mkg respectively.

Tasmanian shorn wool production in season 2005/06 is forecast to fall 1mkg year-on-year to 14mkg.

The revision to the national 2004/05 season figure was based on 4.3mkg and 0.4mkg downward revisions in NSW and WA production figures respectively, and upward revisions to production in Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia. The revisions were based on the latest statistics on wool tested by AWTA.

In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the AWTA. The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.

The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, and The Woolmark Company.

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures: mkg greasy

Read the full report (PDF 66Kb)

Media contact:
National Committee Chairman, Dr David James - tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au

Released by:
AWI Program Manager, Communications, Megan Ball - tel (02) 9299 5155 or 0409 403 827

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