Media Release
Wool production in 2005/06 forecast to remain steady
18 March 2005
Next season's Australian shorn wool production is expected to remain steady at 475 million kilograms, in the latest figures released today by the Australian Wool Innovation Limited (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee.
Today's figures, released following the Committee's quarterly meeting yesterday, are the first forecasts for the new 2005/06 season and are on par with the revised 2004/05 forecast production of 477mkg greasy.
Committee Chairman Dr David James said the 2005/06 forecast obviously depended on seasonal forecasts in much of Australia over the next two months.
"If the dry seasonal conditions, particularly in NSW, are replaced by a return to a normal autumn period, then shorn wool production could well be higher in 2005/06," he said.
Production for 2004/05 has been revised down slightly to 477mkg from the December 2004 forecast of 487mkg, due to revised NSW shorn sheep numbers and wool cut.
The latest changes to the 2004/05 forecast are also based on the latest Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) test statistics and ABARE survey results.
The revised 2004/05 forecast is 0.6 per cent higher than the 475mkg production in the 2003/04 season and is based on 107.15 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.46 kilograms per head (kg/head), both slightly lower than in the December 2004 forecast.
The first forecast for 2005/06 season production is based on unchanged production in NSW, Victoria and South Australia but marginally lower production in Western Australia and Tasmania, and a 3.9 per cent drop in Queensland production on the back of poorer seasonal conditions.
"However if there are good autumn rains across NSW, production figures in that state may well be revised up, boosting national production," Dr James said.
"Rainfall in the next six weeks remains critical to some of the major wool producing areas in NSW, given a significant part of the state remains drought declared.
"Similarly in Western Australia, the extent of the autumn break in the major wool producing area in the south of the state will significantly influence that state's wool production in season 2005/06, given the area's early finish to the spring growing season last year."
A full report of the Committee's March forecasts will be available after 2.00 PM on Wednesday, 23 March on the AWI website at http://www.wool.com.au/.
Ends.
Media contact: National Committee Chairman, Dr David James - tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au.
Backgrounder
The revised 2004/05 production estimate resulted in a modest 0.6 per cent rise in national production compared with the 2003/04 season. The latest forecast is 10mkg lower than the Committee's December forecast, mostly due to a downward revision in sheep numbers shorn and cut per head in NSW reflected in AWTA year-to-date test figures in this state.
Downward revisions were also made to the 2004/05 forecasts for Queensland, Tasmania and South Australia, while estimates for Victoria and Western Australia remained unchanged.
The Queensland 2004/05 production forecast was revised down from a 10 per cent increase to an 8.4 per cent increase on 2003/04 due to generally below average seasonal conditions in the last three months.
The 2004/05 production forecasts for NSW and Tasmania were revised down significantly from the forecasts made in December 2004. NSW production was revised from an increase of 5.6 per cent to an increase of just 1.1 per cent, based on the latest AWTA data. Production estimates for Tasmania were revised down from an increase of 5.2 per cent forecast in December 2004 to no change, based on seasonal conditions relative to the previous year.
The decrease in South Australian 2004/05 production forecasts from a decrease of 0.5 per cent to a decrease of 1.3 per cent was based on year-on-year changes in AWTA test data.
Victoria and Western Australian 2004/05 production forecasts remained unchanged on the December 2004 meeting.
In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from ABS, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange and AWTA. The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, and The Woolmark Company.
Download the March 2005 forecast report (PDF 235Kb)
Released by:
AWI Program Manager, Communications, Megan Ball - tel (02) 9299 5155 or 0409 403 827.