Media Release

No change to Australian wool production forecasts

9 September 2005

Australian shorn wool production is forecast at 470mkg greasy in 2005/06, unchanged on the last industry forecast in June.

In the latest figures released today by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee, the Australian shorn wool production forecast for the 2005/06 season remains just one per cent or 5mkg below the 2004/05 season figure of 475mkg.

The main driver behind the 2005/06 production forecast continues to be an expectation of lower fleece cuts per head for sheep shorn this spring in most parts of NSW and in the higher rainfall areas in western Victoria and the south-east corner of South Australia.

Average fleece weights are forecast to decline around 2-3 per cent in most of the eastern states for the 2005/06 season as a result of the dry autumn. Fleece weights for sheep shorn in the second half of 2005/06 in the eastern states are forecast to return to more normal levels based on adequate spring rain.

The wool production forecast in WA for 2005/06 - tipped to be up 7mkg on 2004/05 production - continues to reflect the exceptional seasonal conditions there, with the increase helping to offset some of the decline in the eastern states.

The Committee has forecast a broadening of the clip, with national production of 20.6-24.5 micron wool expected to increase 6-9 per cent, primarily due to micron shifts in the WA clip on the back of the good season.

Dr James noted that the Australian flock had managed to continue a modest rebound in the past 12 months from its low in the 2003/04 season.

"Early indications point to a small increase in sheep numbers at the end of June 2004 compared with the same time 12 months ago," he said.

"This is despite less than conducive seasons in recent years in parts of Australia such as NSW and strong increases in national slaughterings through 2004/05."

Download the full report of the Committee’s September forecasts (PDF 215Kb)

The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday 8 December 2005.

Ends

Backgrounder

The 2005/06 shorn wool production forecast of 470mkg greasy is based on 106.7 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.40 kilograms per head (kg/head).

The production estimate for the 2004/05 season remains unchanged on the June forecast of 475 mkg greasy. This continues to set 2004/05 production the same as in the 2003/04 season. The 2004/05 estimate is based on 106.8 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.44 kilograms per head (kg/head).

State by state, NSW 2005/06 shorn wool production is forecast at 161.7mkg, down two per cent or 3.3 mkg on the 2004/05 production estimate. For Queensland and South Australia, shorn wool production is forecast to decline by around five per cent for the 2005/06 season compared with 2004/05, to 22mkg and 62mkg respectively. Victorian production is forecast to decline by 3.5 per cent or 3.3mkg to 92mkg. Tasmanian shorn wool production is forecast to fall to 14mkg, a 6.6 per cent decline.

In contrast, WA shorn wool production is forecast to rise six per cent or 7mkg, to 119mkg, as sheep numbers shorn and fleece weights increase compared with the 2004/05 season.

In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.

The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, and The Woolmark Company.

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures: mkg greasy.

Media contact: Dr David James - National Committee Chairman - 02 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au

Released by:
Megan Ball - AWI Corporate Affairs - 02 8295 3102

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