Media Release

Wool production remains stable in 2006/07

10 July 2006

Australian shorn wool production is forecast to remain relatively stable in the 2006/07 season compared with the 2005/06 season.

Shorn wool production in the eastern states is forecast to increase modestly, but this increase is expected to be counteracted by a decline in Western Australian (WA) wool production.

In the latest figures released today by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee, the forecast for Australian shorn wool production in the 2006/07 season is 456 million kilograms (mkg), 0.6% lower on the previous season. The new forecast is also 9 mkg lower than the committee’s first forecast in March.

Committee Chairman Dr David James said the current forecast for the 2006/07 season was based on a situation almost the opposite to last season.

"In the 2005/06 season, Australian wool production was pushed in two opposing directions, largely by seasonal influences. Production increased significantly in the west, but wool production declined across the eastern seaboard," Dr James said.

"In the new season (2006/07), we face the opposite situation, with an overall but modest increase in wool production across eastern Australia, but a significant decline in WA production."

Dr James said any rebound in shorn wool production continues to be hampered by inconsistent rainfall patterns and the inability of the different major Australian wool growing areas to have an average or good season at the same time. Further, there has been no significant improvement in grower sentiment towards increasing flock numbers for wool production.

Nationally, the volume of fine wool (19.5 micron & finer) is forecast to increase slightly in the 2006/07 season to 150 mkg greasy - the sole result of the poor season in WA. This forecast increase in fine wool production remains below the record 154 mkg produced in 2004/05.

The committee also revised 2005/06 season figures slightly higher to 459 mkg greasy, up 3 mkg on the forecast made in March 2006, as a result of the latest test statistics from the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) and the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX). 

For the 2005/06 season, AWTA tested 3.2% less wool (by weight) while an analysis by AWEX indicated a 4.3% decline year-on-year. Overall, the committee set the 2005/06 production estimate 3.5% lower than the 2004/05 season.

A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm Wednesday, 12 July here on wool.com.au. The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday 28 September 2006.

Ends

Backgrounder

The revised 2005/06 estimate is based on 106.5 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average of 4.31 kilograms per head (kg/hd). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates the number of opening sheep and lambs at the beginning of the 2005/06 season were 101.1 million head.

The latest 2006/07 forecast is based on 106.1 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average of 4.30 kilograms per head (kg/hd). Initial estimates by the state forecasting committees on the number of sheep and lambs in the Australian flock at the 1st July 2006, are for a flock size of around 100 million head.

State by state, NSW 2006/07 production is forecast at 157 mkg, up nearly 1%. Queensland shorn wool production is forecast to be static, Victorian production is forecast to increase 1.5% in 2006/07 year-on-year, Tasmania and South Australia are forecast to be approximately 4% higher each, while WA shorn wool production is forecast to decline 7% in 2006/07 compared with the previous season.

In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.

The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, DAWA and The Woolmark Company.

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.    Figures: mkg greasy      

(e) = estimate      (f) = forecast

Released by:
Sally Davison- AWI Corporate Affairs - (02) 9299 5155 or 0428 295 898. Media contact: Dr David James – (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au

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