Media Release
Small rebound in Australian wool production forecast
10 March 2006
Analysts are predicting a modest increase in Australian shorn wool production to 465 million kilograms (mkg) next season on the back of better wool cuts per head in 2006/07.
The Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee released their first figures for the 2006/07 season today.
The slight increase to 465mkg in 2006/07 is a 9mkg or two per cent increase compared with the 2005/06 season and depends on normal rainfall patterns over the coming autumn period, particularly in the south-eastern states.
The modest increase in shorn wool production is based on an improvement in fleece weights rather than any significant increase in the number of sheep shorn.
The committee lowered its forecast for the current 2005/06 season to 456mkg, down from the December 2005 forecast of 467mkg, with the previously anticipated improvement in production below expectations for this stage of the season.
The revised forecast for the 2005/06 season represents a four per cent or 19mkg greasy decline compared with the 2004/05 season and is the result of a slower than anticipated pick-up in wool receivals and test volumes in recent months in the two largest wool producing states, New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia (WA).
In South Australia (SA), adverse seasonal conditions, especially in the high rainfall zone, are having a greater influence on fleece weights than anticipated.
Committee Chairman Dr David James said historically about 70 per cent of a full season’s production was tested by AWTA in the first eight months of the season.
"Given that season-to-date test volumes are 5.1 per cent lower year-on-year, with just 30 per cent of the Australian clip remaining to be tested, this was a key factor in the revision of the 2005/06 forecast," Dr James said.
"While we expect some improvement in wool production in the remaining four months from NSW and WA, the likelihood of a significant rebound in these states between now and June 2006 has diminished."
A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm next Wednesday, 15 March on the AWI website at http://www.wool.com.au/. The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday 6 July 2006.
Ends.
BACKGROUNDER
The first 2006/07 shorn wool production forecast of 465mkg greasy is based on 105.5 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.43 kilograms per head (kg/head). This represents a 0.3 per cent decline in the number of sheep shorn and a 2.8 per cent increase in the average cut per head compared with the previous season.
The latest production forecast for the 2005/06 season is lower than the December 2005 forecast of 467mkg greasy, revised downwards to 456mkg greasy. The 2005/06 forecast is based on 105.8 million sheep shorn at an average of 4.31kg/head.
State by state, NSW 2005/06 shorn wool production is forecast at 155mkg, down six per cent or 10mkg on the 2004/05 production estimate. Shorn wool production for Victoria and South Australia are forecast to decline by four and 10.2 per cent for the 2005/06 season compared with 2004/05, to 94mkg and 57mkg respectively.
Queensland 2005/06 production is forecast to decline by 2.9 per cent or 0.7mkg to 23mkg. Tasmanian shorn wool production is forecast to fall to 13mkg, a 15 per cent decline. WA shorn wool production is forecast to rise three per cent or 3.4mkg, to 115mkg. Previously the forecast for WA was for a six per cent increase in shorn wool production in 2005/06.
In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, and The Woolmark Company.
Season /
Meeting |
Qld |
NSW |
Vic |
Tas |
SA |
WA |
Nat. |
2004/05
Dec 05 (e)
|
23 |
165 |
98 |
15 |
63 |
112 |
475 |
2005/06
Dec 05 (f)
|
23 |
158 |
94 |
14 |
60 |
119 |
467 |
2005/06
Mar 06 (f)
|
23 |
155 |
94 |
13 |
57 |
115 |
456 |
2006/07
Mar 06 (f)
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
465 |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
Figures: mkg greasy
(e) = estimate
(f) = forecast
Released by:
Megan Ball – AWI Corporate Affairs – tel (02) 9299 5155. Media contact: Dr David James – tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au