Media Release
Australia - wide drought results in further decline in production
8 December 2006
A continued deterioration in seasonal conditions across Australia, with a failure of late winter and spring rain, has resulted in a further downward revision to Australian wool production in 2006/07.
In the latest release today by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee, the forecast for Australian shorn wool production in the 2006/07 season is 421 mkg, 9% lower than the previous season. The new forecast represents a further downward revision of 3% or 13 mkg greasy compared with the September 2006 forecast.
The further decline in wool production is based on a fall in fleece weights, which nationally are forecast to reach their lowest level in over 20 years.
Committee Chairman Dr David James said this historically low level of average fleece weights across Australia reflects all states across Australia experiencing drought conditions, as well as less merino wethers and more lambs in the flock.
“For the first time in at least a decade, virtually all key wool producing areas in each state are experiencing drought conditions. Unlike the 2002 drought, which was largely across the eastern seaboard, the current drought is Australia-wide.”
Dr James said shorn wool production is forecast to diminish significantly in the second half of the 2006/07 season when the full impact of the existing drought will be felt. Rainfall for the critical August to October period in South Australia were the lowest on record over the last 100 years, the second lowest in Victoria and the third lowest in NSW. Further to this, above average temperatures have occurred over the same period.
“While current AWTA test volumes and broker recievals have held up well for the first five months of the current season, this is not expected to continue. Factors such as the need for cash flow by many farmers, the recent lift in wool prices and no delays in shearing for wet weather; are likely to mean that current AWTA test volumes are not fully reflecting an already small decline in production. The magnitude of this decline is expected to increase rapidly over the next 7 months.”
Given the impact the season is having on fleece weights and past breeding decisions, the volume of fine wool (19.5 micron & finer) is forecast to increase, although remaining below the level of 154 mkg greasy reached in the 2004/05 season. For the first five months of the current season, the weight of fine wool tested by AWTA represents 35% of the total of all wool tested.
A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm Wednesday, 13 December on the AWI website at www.wool.com.au/forecasts. The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday 22 March 2007.
Backgrounder
The committee made no changes in its estimate of wool production for 2005/06. The 2005/06 final estimate is based on 106.5 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average of 4.33 kilograms per head (kg/hd). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates the number of opening sheep and lambs at the beginning of the 2005/06 season was 101.1 million head.
The latest 2006/07 forecast is based on 103.1 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average of 4.08 kilograms per head (kg/hd). Initial estimates by the state forecasting committees of the number of sheep and lambs in the Australian flock at the 1st July 2006, are for a flock size of around 100 million head.
State by state, NSW 2006/07 production is forecast at 140 mkg, down 10%. Queensland shorn wool production is forecast to fall by 5% year-on-year, Victorian production is forecast to decline to 85 mkg greasy, down by 7% in 2006/07 year-on-year, and Tasmania and Western Australia are forecast to be lower by 9% and 15% respectively. South Australia is the only state to forecast an increase, up 2%.
In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) and the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA). The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, DAWA and The Woolmark Company.
| Season |
Meeting |
QLD |
NSW |
Vic. |
Tas. |
SA |
WA |
National |
| 2004/05 |
Dec 05 (e) |
23 |
165 |
98 |
15 |
63 |
112 |
475 |
| 2005/06 |
Sept 06 (e) |
22 |
156 |
92 |
13 |
58 |
122 |
461 |
| 2005/06 |
Dec 06 (e) |
22 |
156 |
92 |
13 |
58 |
122 |
461 |
| 2006/07 |
Sept 06 (f) |
21 |
143 |
88 |
13 |
60 |
109 |
434 |
| 2006/07 |
Dec 06 (f) |
21 |
140 |
85 |
12 |
59 |
104 |
421 |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
Figures: mkg greasy
(e) = estimate (f) = forecast
Released by:
Sally Davison – AWI Corporate Affairs – 02 9299 5155 or 0428 295 898, Media contact: Dr David James – tel (02) 9974 5450 or email ecoservices@iprimus.com.au