Media Release
On-going dry takes toll on Australian wool production
21 September 2007
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has today forecast the ongoing drought will continue to take its toll on the nation’s sheep flock and, in turn, wool production.
At its meeting the Committee forecast Australian shorn wool production in the 2007/08 season at 395 million kilograms greasy, seven per cent lower than the estimated production for 2006/07.
The Forecasting Committee expects the number of sheep and lambs shorn to be 93 million head in 2007/08, down eight per cent on the previous season, primarily the result of higher slaughterings and lower lambing numbers in 2006.
This is the second consecutive year when late winter/early spring rain has failed to eventuate across much of eastern Australia, dramatically reducing the likelihood of any significant rebound in fleece weights from sheep shorn in these regions in the second half of the season as expected at the June meeting.
“After what looked like a relatively positive start to the 2007 pasture growing season, rainfall in August and September across many of the major sheep growing areas in eastern Australia has failed to materialise,” said Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson.
“This, combined with low soil moisture from the previous year’s drought, is a key reason for the downward revision from the Committee’s June meeting.
“Fortunately, there remain some areas of the country where the rains have fallen.”
In releasing the committee’s report, Mr Pattinson emphasised the difficulty in forecasting at this time of the year, especially given the challenging seasonal conditions.
The committee has received in-depth research and detailed commentary from the state forecasting committees as well as major industry organisations including the Australian Wool Testing Authority, the Australian Wool Exchange, Meat & Livestock Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
In addition, a key input in determining this forecast were the results from a survey of 1200 woolgrowers across Australia conducted in July by the Department of Agriculture & Food (Western Australia) for the Wool Production Forecasting Committee.
A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm Wednesday 26 September on the AWI website at www.wool.com.au/forecasts. The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Wednesday 5 December.
BACKGROUNDER
The forecast for the season ending 30 June 2008 is based on 93.1 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average fleece weight of 4.25 kg/hd; an estimated production of 395mkg greasy.
State by state, 2007/08 wool production in NSW is forecast at 126 mkg, down 10 per cent, Queensland shorn wool production is expected to fall to 20 mkg greasy, Victorian production is forecast to decline to 80 mkg greasy while Tasmania and Western Australia are forecast to be lower by 11 per cent and eight per cent respectively. South Australian wool production is forecast to remain relatively stable, up by one per cent.
The first estimate for Australian wool production in the 2006/07 season remains unchanged from the June 2007 meeting at 426 mkg greasy. Production in 2006/07 is based on 101.4 million head of sheep and lambs shorn at an average of 4.21 kilograms per head (kg/hd). The latest ABS estimate of opening sheep and lamb numbers for the 2006/07 season is 93 million head.
In developing the forecasts the Committee reviewed the latest available statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), ABARE, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX), the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) and the national AWI/Sheep CRC woolgrower survey with responses from 1200 woolgrowers. The Committee also drew on information from the state sub-committees about conditions and trends in the various regions of each state.
The AWI Production Forecasting Committee comprises woolgrowers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants and representatives from AWEX, AWTA, ABARE, ABS, MLA, DAWA and The Woolmark Company.
Previous estimates from the Committee
|
Season
|
Meeting
|
QLD
|
NSW
|
Vic.
|
Tas.
|
SA
|
WA
|
National |
|
2004/05
|
Dec 05 (e)
|
23
|
165
|
98
|
15
|
63
|
112
|
475
|
|
2005/06
|
Dec 06 (e)
|
22
|
156
|
92
|
13
|
58
|
122
|
461
|
|
2006/07
|
Jun 07 (f)
|
21
|
140
|
87
|
12
|
61
|
105
|
426
|
|
2006/07
|
Sept 07 (e)
|
21
|
140
|
87
|
12
|
61
|
105
|
426
|
|
2007/08
|
Jun 07 (f)
|
21
|
127
|
82
|
11
|
66
|
103
|
410
|
|
2007/08
|
Sept 07 (f)
|
20
|
126
|
80
|
10
|
62
|
97
|
395
|
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures: mkg greasy (e) = final estimate (f) = forecast
Released by:
Sally Davison – AWI Corporate Affairs – (02) 9299 5155 or 0428 295 898.